You're Probably Building Bad Commander Decks. Part 1: Lands. #magicthegathering #mtg

Source: Based Deck Department Apr 22, 2025 Core lands

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Summary

Land-count math for Commander decks. Core principle: aim to hit every land drop through turn five, since missing drops leaves you falling behind the table. To reliably open with three lands, the mathematically correct starting point is at least 42ΓÇô43 lands. The presenter concedes he doesn't actually run that manyΓÇöhe targets about 38 lands in an average deckΓÇöbut stresses 42 is the true baseline before factoring in mana rocks and ramp, which offset the lower count. Framed against that 42 benchmark, running 32 lands looks far more reckless than 38. Goal after the opener: draw two more lands by turn five. Using simplified assumptions (no deck thinning, no extra draw beyond the turn draw), that's 12 cards seen by turn five; with 42 lands you expect about 5.1 lands by then. Takeaway for deckbuilding: don't shave lands blindlyΓÇöknow 42 is the math-correct floor, then justify going lower (e.g., to 38) specifically through added mana rocks and ramp.

Key Clips

  • [00:10] In the vast majority of decks, you're likely going to want to hit your land drops every turn until turn five. Anything less, and you're probably going to start feeling the negative effects of falling behind the table.
  • [00:25] In your opening hand you're probably going to be happy or at least comfortable with three lands. Mathematically, to do that reliably, you need to be running at least 42 to 43 lands.
  • [00:41] I don't personally want to run that many lands either, and I don't. I typically aim for about 38 in the average deck. Plus, we'll get to mana rocks and ramp in a minute.
  • [00:48] Our correct starting point mathematically should be at least 42 lands. And immediately 32 lands should be looking way more outrageous than 38.
  • [00:56] As we start drawing cards, our goal is to draw another two lands by turn five.
  • [01:48] By turn five, that's a total of 12 cards drawn from our deck. And with 42 lands, mathematically, we should hit 5.1 lands.

Tags

Archetypes/Strategy: lands, ramp Format/Bracket: Core Card Categories: ramp, draw

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