Mana Base Analysis

Check whether a Commander deck has enough lands and the right colored sources for its curve — the verdict is computed directly, no AI needed.

How it works

Built on Frank Karsten's source-count math, then extended — it weights non-land sources (mana rocks, dorks, MDFCs), accounts for tapped vs. untapped lands for turn-one casts, sizes each color to its hardest spell, and estimates each spell's chance to be cast on curve.

Archidekt or Moxfield deck URL

Deck name (optional)

…or paste a decklist (one card per line, with set/collector if you have it)

Reduced / alternative costs (optional)

One per line as Card Name: cost — e.g. Force of Will: 0 or Blasphemous Act: {R}. Use this for pitch/free spells, board-scaling cards (Blasphemous Act), and evoke/suspend, where the real cost is below the printed one.

Deck type

Casual cEDH

cEDH = lower land count, fast-mana heavy. Casual also shows a per-card castability table.

How important is casting your commander?

Central Standard Low

Central — must cast ASAP, every game (e.g. Brago). Standard — matters, cast when convenient. Low — optional / late value.

How the analysis works

The land count comes from Frank Karsten's source-count regression for singleton (Commander) decks: a target driven by average mana value, ramp and card draw at three mana or less, fast mana, and double-faced lands, with a credit for each commander. cEDH mode lowers that target into the competitive ~28–32 band (a ~3.5-land cut, floored at 28), crediting fast mana fully.

Each spell's castability comes from a Monte-Carlo simulation: it draws an opening seven, applies the London mulligan (bottoming non-lands first when a hand is land-light), plays on the play turn by turn, deploys ramp as it comes online, credits fetchlands to the colors they can fetch, and applies any always-on cost reducers — then asks, on the spell's on-curve turn, whether there is enough mana and the right colored pips together (a joint check, not two independent odds). The reported number is the share of simulated games where the card was castable on curve.

Colored-source findings combine a worst-driver spell (the hardest single card for a color) with a population view (how many of that color's cards are under-supported and their mean castability). The weakest color surfaces tail risk first. The commander-importance setting weights the commander's colors more or less heavily — Central holds them to a stricter, cEDH-style threshold.

The overall health reads on a four-tier scale — Excellent, Solid, Workable, Needs work — that grades the mana base, not the curve. A card that casts late only because it is expensive (a curve problem the base can't fix) never fails the verdict; only a real, fixable colored-source or land shortage does. Needs work means a broad shortage (lands well short, a color short by several sources, or two-plus colors short); Workable is one contained color issue; Solid is a working base with minor notes; Excellent is clean.

Credit: Frank Karsten's published source-count work. The castability estimate is our own Monte-Carlo simulation, cross-checked against community mana calculators including Salubrious Snail. These figures are an estimate; treat them as a ranking aid, not a guarantee.